The European Union has issued a final warning to the Georgian government: if Tbilisi fails to halt democratic backsliding, the visa-free regime granted in 2017 may be revoked. The EU has set August 31, 2025, as the deadline.
When Georgian citizens gained the right to visa-free travel within the Schengen zone in 2017, the ruling “Georgian Dream” party portrayed the event as a strategic victory (Chiara, 2019). At the time, Prime Minister Giorgi Kvirikashvili described the decision as a “historic opportunity for integration into European values.” President Giorgi Margvelashvili even traveled to Athens with an official delegation to symbolically celebrate the start of the visa-free regime.
However, today, instead of integrating into those values, Georgia is rapidly moving along an anti-democratic, pro-Russian trajectory. The “foreign agents law,” anti-LGBT initiatives, systematic suppression of the opposition, and rhetoric against Western institutions all indicate growing authoritarian tendencies. After the parliamentary elections at the end of 2023—which international observers questioned in terms of legitimacy—the “Georgian Dream” government declared that it was suspending accession talks with the European Union (KHAR Center, January 2025a). In response, the United States suspended its strategic partnership with Georgia, and the EU reinstated the visa regime for Georgian diplomatic passport holders (KHAR Center, January 2025b).
A Political Course Toward a “Georgia Without Opposition”
In 2024, the “Georgian Dream” party established a special parliamentary commission to investigate the period from 2003 to 2012, known among the public as the “Tsulukiani Commission” (Imedi, February 2025). The commission’s mandate was later expanded to include the period after 2012—thus targeting the opposition’s political activities as well.
The primary goal of the commission is to target representatives of the former government and pro-Western opposition parties. The mandates of 49 opposition members of parliament were annulled, and in their place, a “healthy opposition” made up of individuals close to the ruling party was formed. The head of the parliamentary faction, Mamuka Mdinaradze, announced that based on the commission’s findings, an appeal would be made to the Constitutional Court to dissolve the United National Movement, founded by Mikheil Saakashvili, and to ban its affiliate organizations (Civil.ge, March 2025).
In May, a bill titled “On Successor Parties” was introduced and unanimously adopted by parliament. According to the new law, organizations that continue the ideological line or include personnel from previously banned parties will also be shut down. This approach is seen as a mechanism aimed at completely eliminating political pluralism and pro-European forces in Georgia.
A Commission Turned into a Mechanism of Retribution and Punishment
The commission has not only targeted former politicians but also continues to summon representatives of civil society for investigation. Under various pretexts—such as the 2008 war, participation in protests, and foreign funding—oppositional voices are being silenced. Over the past two months, prominent political figures such as Mamuka Khazaradze, Badri Japaridze, Nika Melia, Nika Gvaramia, and others have received prison sentences ranging from 7–8 months and bans from public service for 2–3 years (Reuters, July 2025).
A Harsh Warning from the European Union
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, has declared that if democratic backsliding in Georgia is not halted, the visa-free regime will be revoked, the Partnership Agreement will be suspended, and individual sanctions may be imposed. The European Commission has sent a letter to the Georgian government containing concrete recommendations and has given a deadline of August 31 (Civil.ge, July 2025).
Tbilisi's Response: “Visa or Peace?”
In response to the EU’s warning, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze stated that Georgia would not compromise its principles of “peace and stability.” He framed the visa-free regime issue as an attempt by the West to open a “second front” in the country—using this rhetoric to manipulate domestic audiences.
Division Within the EU
There is no unified stance within the EU on what measures should be taken against Georgia. France, the Netherlands, Estonia, and the Baltic states support the imposition of tougher sanctions. Meanwhile, Hungary and Slovakia defend Tbilisi. The decision to revoke the visa regime is subject to the qualified majority principle in the EU—that is, at least 15 of the 27 member states representing 65% of the EU population must vote in favor (EC, 2024).
Nevertheless, there are concerns within the EU about the potential negative impact of visa regime suspension on Georgian society. Since 2017, more than 1,150,000 Georgian citizens have traveled to EU countries, with at least 300,000 not returning. Official records show that over 120,000 Georgians currently reside in Europe. Therefore, reinstating the visa regime could have significant socio-migratory consequences (Jamestown Foundation, May 2025).
Possible Scenarios
Given the current situation, three primary scenarios are likely regarding the EU’s response and Georgia’s future course:
- Harsh Measures Scenario – If the October elections are rigged, the EU suspends the visa-free regime, imposes sanctions on political leadership, and freezes the partnership agreement.
- Wait-and-See/Soft Sanctions Scenario – If the elections are formally free and fair, the EU refrains from taking major steps and adopts a cautious stance.
- Realpolitik Scenario – Despite large-scale electoral fraud, the EU avoids tough action against Tbilisi due to geopolitical considerations, accelerating Georgia’s authoritarian drift.
In all three scenarios, the decisive moment will be the local elections scheduled for October 2024. These elections will play a critical role in shaping Georgia’s authoritarian future, the EU’s principled stance, and the geopolitical landscape of the entire South Caucasus region.
References:
Loda, Chiara, 2019. “Georgia, the European Union, and the Visa-Free Travel Regime: Between European Identity and Strategic Pragmatism.” Nationalities Papers 47, no. 6 (2019): 1–18. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/nationalities-papers/article/georgia-the-european-union-and-the-visafree-travel-regime-between-european-identity-and-strategic-pragmatism/08C5D3BC79FD9585941A1081DD7D5CB3?utm
KHAR Center, January 2025a. Gürcü Kollapsı: Gürcüstanın Strateji İstiqaməti – Avrointeqrasiyadan Uzaqlaşma Səbəbləri. https://www.kharcenter.com/arasdirmalar/gurcu-kollapsi-gurcustanin-strateji-istiqameti-avrointeqrasiyadan-uzaqlasma-sebebleri
KHAR Center, January 2025b. Gürcü Kollapsı: Gürcüstanın Strateji İstiqaməti – Avrointeqrasiyadan Uzaqlaşma Səbəbləri. https://www.kharcenter.com/arasdirmalar/gurcu-kollapsi-gurcustanin-strateji-istiqameti-avrointeqrasiyadan-uzaqlasma-sebebleri
Imedi, Februray 2025. Georgian Parliament Approves Establishment of Temporary Investigative Commission to Investigate Activities of Former UNM Regime, Its Officials Between 2003 and 2012. https://info.imedi.ge/en/politics/4575
Civil.ge. March 2025. GD to Ban Opposition Groups Under “Successor Parties” Law, Declare Them Unconstitutional. March 2025. https://civil.ge/archives/672248?utm
Reuters, June 2025. Georgia Jails Three Opposition Politicians, Including Bank Founder. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/georgia-jails-three-opposition-politicians-including-bank-founder-2025-06-23/?utm
Civil, July 2025. Brussels Warns Consequences as EU Foreign Ministers Discuss Suspending Visa-Free for Georgia. https://civil.ge/archives/692494
Jamestown Foundation, May 2025. Georgians May Lose Visa-Free Travel to the European Union. May 2025. https://jamestown.org/program/georgians-may-lose-visa-free-travel-to-the-european-union/?utm
European Council, 2024. Qualified Majority.
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/council-eu/voting-system/qualified-majority/
