On the night of Wednesday, September 10, dozens of Russian drones crossed Ukrainian airspace and entered Polish territory. Previously, Russian UAVs had also fallen into Poland, but for the first time Poland had to target Russian drones that entered its airspace. NATO also helped with defense. Dutch F-35 fighter jets shot down drones that entered Poland. Chopin Airport, along with three other airports, remained closed throughout the night. Citizens in Warsaw and in three regions near the Ukrainian border were urged to stay home and move to shelters (Al Jazeera, September 2025).
No expert believes that Russia’s intention with this move was to cause major destruction. That would have made a strong military response from NATO inevitable. Moscow’s primary aim is to send a message: to intimidate NATO countries in Europe and test their positions.
This incident comes at a time when European countries, following U.S. President Donald Trump’s reduction of aid, are discussing taking on more of the burden themselves in supporting Ukraine. These discussions also include the possibility of deploying a “guarantee force” in Ukraine after a peace agreement, in order to deter Russia (John Irish, September 2025).
For the first time, a mass incursion of drones into NATO airspace—and into Poland, the main logistical hub for military aid to Ukraine—demonstrates that the Kremlin is trying to undermine Europe’s support for Ukraine while simultaneously testing their reaction.
Last month, after Trump invited Putin to a summit in Alaska, the Russian leader sharply intensified airstrikes against Ukraine, carrying out some of the largest attacks of the war in recent days. Despite threatening severe sanctions, Trump has so far only eased Putin’s isolation. He continues to signal a reduction of U.S. support for NATO and Ukraine, while simultaneously attempting rapprochement with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Now, for the first time since the war began, Russian drones have been shot down in a NATO country. This new escalation by Russia is aimed at weakening both NATO states’ confidence in their own defense capabilities and their trust that Trump will firmly support them. In other words, recent U.S. diplomacy has openly emboldened Putin.
Despite NATO’s statements following the attack, the reaction revealed that European countries are not yet prepared for large-scale drone strikes. They are ready for traditional air warfare, but not for drones, which have become widespread in the war in Ukraine. Poland and NATO used advanced fighter jets to shoot down some cheap drones, but out of the reported 19, only 4 were destroyed.
Russia’s message is clear: just imagine what could happen to you if hundreds of drones were used, as in Ukraine!
The Kremlin appears intent on testing NATO in Europe—and feels bold enough to do so. Poland has invoked Article 4 of NATO, demanding urgent consultations, and European leaders have said they are preparing ways to strengthen air defense. But if no strong response comes from the U.S. and Europe, Putin will be encouraged to repeat the move. That, in turn, increases the risk of a more dangerous confrontation.
The West’s Dilemma
The West is now facing a new situation. Putin could hardly make it clearer that he does not want peace. Trump’s attempts to bring Putin to the negotiating table—even at the cost of embarrassing himself—look increasingly pointless. On the Sunday before this drone attack, Russia carried out its largest air assault on Ukraine since the war began (Lidia Kelly and Olena Harmash, September 2025). For the first time, a government building in Kyiv was struck. These are open messages: “I will not withdraw from the battlefield until I get what I want,” Putin is saying.
Russia has not achieved its objectives in this war. Putin knows that if it ends with just a ceasefire, his domestic authority will be severely damaged. People would rightfully ask: Why did we start this war? What did we gain? And Putin has no answer to those questions. In a war launched to stop NATO’s expansion eastward, Sweden and Finland have become NATO members. NATO countries have raised their defense budgets to record levels—5% of GDP (NATO, 2025). Russia is isolated from the world, its economy is collapsing, and it has lost nearly 200,000 people. On the road where it sought to become a global power, Russia has lost influence in the Caucasus. Its ally Assad in Syria has been overthrown. Its other ally, Iran, it has been unable to defend against Israel.
So what happens after Poland’s step? Poland is right to fear Russia. Had Ukraine fallen in 2022, Poland could have been the next target. Poland is one of the biggest supporters of Ukraine. About two million Ukrainians live there—1 million with refugee status and another 1 million as regular residents (International Rescue Committee, 2023). This incident will set off alarm bells in Poland. Given historical reasons and Russia’s expansionist policies, this is natural. In 2025 Poland plans to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP. Back in 2019, this figure was just 2% (Reuters, April 2025).
By sending this message to Poland, Russia has openly declared its unwillingness for peace. For Trump, this is a crossroads. Either he will arm Ukraine more strongly alongside America’s traditional allies to force Russia into peace, or he will cling to his affection for Putin and try to push Ukraine into a harsh settlement. This Russian attack is also partly a test of Trump: if NATO allies do not respond adequately to an attack on one of them, the distance between Europe and America—and more precisely between Europe and Trump—will only grow wider.
Yet especially after this incident, European countries will never abandon Ukraine. It is now completely clear that if Russia achieves its goals in Ukraine, the next stage will be to target the Baltic states and Poland. Contrary to what Trump and his naïve circle may think, the war against Russia is not just a border clash, but a defense matter that directly determines Europe’s security. Without resolving this problem, it is impossible to expect a permanent end to the war. The only way to stop Russia’s expansionism is to ensure Ukraine’s real victory and put Russia back in its place.
What Lessons Should NATO Draw from This Incident?
NATO allies must invest in wider sensor networks on the Polish and Baltic borders, while also ensuring they have real capabilities to prevent airspace violations. This means implementing diverse air-defense strategies.
NATO needs “low-cost per shot” systems along its borders. Each Russian drone costs about $35,000, while NATO is using missiles worth more than $1 million or aircraft costing $50,000 per flight hour to shoot them down (Emma Burrows, September 2025). That is not sustainable. NATO must therefore invest more in passive and active methods such as electronic warfare, drone-jamming, and directed-energy technologies. The U.S. military—including the Army and the Defense Innovation Unit—is already working in this area (AFCEA, August 2025). The next step is large-scale deployment.
Ukrainians have been fighting drones at the front for years (Current Time and Oleksiy Prodayvoda, July 2025). The U.S. and other NATO countries should at least keep learning from their experience and continue to develop the solutions they have found.
If it is proven that this was a deliberate Russian provocation, NATO leaders must respond diplomatically and militarily to deter Russia from similar moves. Consultations under Article 4 are just the first important step. Especially strong condemnation from the U.S. is essential, because Putin is testing America’s commitment to NATO defense.
NATO leaders can consider a wide spectrum of military responses. The lowest-escalation-risk steps include increasing air patrols and strengthening air defense on the eastern flank. A tougher option would be to support Ukraine’s strikes on Russian drone production centers, or even to send a military contingent to Ukraine before peace is achieved. The West must finally understand that humanitarian and financial aid alone is not enough to bring about peace in the Ukraine war.
References:
Al Jazeera, September 2025. Poland shoots down Russian drones: Will NATO enter war in Ukraine? https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/9/10/poland-shoots-down-russian-drones-will-nato-enter-war-in-ukraine
John Irish, September 2025. 26 nations vow to give Ukraine postwar security guarantees, Macron says. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/26-nations-vow-give-ukraine-postwar-security-guarantees-macron-says-2025-09-04/
Lidia Kelly and Olena Harmash, Septenmer 2025. Russia hits Ukraine with biggest air attack of war, sets government building ablaze. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-hits-ukraine-with-biggest-air-attack-war-sets-government-building-ablaze-2025-09-07/
NATO, 2025. Funding NATO. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_67655.htm
International Rescue Committee, 2023. Poland. https://www.rescue.org/eu/country/poland
Reuters, April 2025. Poland wants to spend 5% of GDP on defence in 2026, minister says. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-wants-spend-5-gdp-defence-2026-minister-says-2025-04-03/
EMMA BURROWS, September 2025. NATO’s first drone battle pits million-dollar jets against cheap drones, exposing vulnerabilities. https://apnews.com/article/poland-russia-drones-jamming-ukraine-incursion-nato-27b1aeed542604c91386df1fbe4463c7
AFCEA, August 2025. U.S. Army Modifies Its EW Approach To Counter Drones and More. https://www.afcea.org/signal-media/us-army-modifies-its-ew-approach-counter-drones-and-more
Current Time and Oleksiy Prodayvoda, July 2025. Old Van, New Tech: How Ukrainian Troops Counter Drones https://www.rferl.org/a/pokrovsk-kamikaze-drones/33459611.html
