Introduction
The 2025 presidential elections in Romania signify more than just a change in national political leadership; they represent a symbolic turning point that reflects broader ideological and geopolitical intersections for both Eastern Europe and the European Union. As part of the wider struggle between democracy and authoritarian-leaning populism, the elections have garnered significant attention both domestically and internationally. As a member of the European Union and a strategic partner of NATO, Romania plays a decisive role in strengthening pro-Western and democratic forces amid ongoing tensions between Russia and the West.
The electoral race was sharply polarized between two candidates: on one side, Nicușor Dan, known for his pro-European and reformist stance; on the other, George Simion, a radical right-wing populist with nationalist rhetoric. This confrontation revealed not only ideological differences but also deep social and economic divisions in Romanian society, the rise of populism, and a growing distrust in the political system.
In this analysis by the Khar Center, we will examine the transformative impact of the 2025 presidential elections on Romanian society and its political system. We will also explore what the results mean for the European Union, NATO, and the broader international order. Furthermore, key issues such as the rise of populism, political polarization among citizens, and future challenges will be thoroughly analyzed. Through the example of Romania, lessons will be drawn for the sustainability of democracy, institutional resilience, and global political stability in Eastern Europe.
Context: A History of Electoral Tension
The 2025 elections took place following the annulment of a previous vote held at the end of 2024, in which the right-wing candidate Călin Georgescu was initially declared the winner. That election was later invalidated due to allegations of foreign interference, particularly linked to Russian-origin media and cyber operations. These developments sparked widespread protests across the country and led to judicial intervention. The new elections offered Romanian citizens not only the chance to choose a president but also to reaffirm their trust in the democratic system.
In the second round held on May 18, 2025, former Bucharest mayor Nicușor Dan won public support with a platform focused on fighting corruption, ensuring transparency, and deepening integration with the European Union. His opponent, George Simion, leader of the AUR (Alliance for the Union of Romanians), campaigned with an anti-immigration stance, opposition to the EU, and rhetoric reminiscent of Donald Trump. Dan secured approximately 54% of the vote, while Simion received 46% (Reuters 2025).
The Rise of Populism and Polarization in Romania
The rise of George Simion is a clear example of the growing appeal of populist movements across Europe. His campaign was accompanied by anti-establishment rhetoric, disinformation tactics, and appeals to national identity. These elections showed that populism has significantly strengthened in Romania, but society has not yet fully surrendered to this ideology. George Simion and his AUR (Alliance for the Union of Romanians) party attracted the attention of a broad segment of the electorate through populist political discourse. His campaign followed a typical right-wing populist line, centering on national sovereignty, anti-elite rhetoric, and the idea of the “will of the people.” However, his defeat demonstrated that the majority of Romanian voters still view populism with skepticism (AP News 2025).
The rise of populism in Romania is not merely an ideological phenomenon—it is deeply rooted in social and economic conditions. Years of corruption, institutional weakness, and social inequality have fostered widespread distrust in central authority (Transparency International 2024). In such an environment, populist politicians were able to present themselves as the only leaders who "hear the voice of the people," positioning themselves as alternatives to the established system (Robert Schuman Foundation 2024).
Simion’s rhetoric relied on an anti-elite stance, hostility toward foreigners, and the idea of protecting national identity. He gained substantial support particularly in rural areas and regions with low levels of urbanization. In these places, voters often feel socially and politically isolated and perceive such leaders as “one of their own.”
Social media and alternative information channels played a crucial role in the effectiveness of the populist campaign. Simion and his supporters frequently referred to official media outlets as "lying machines serving the system" and claimed that only their platforms provided “the truth.” This strategy resonated especially with youth and groups experiencing political disillusionment.
At the same time, disinformation and manipulative information tools played a major role in intensifying pre-election polarization. The spread of false information on social media further aggravated public discourse and deepened the “us vs. them” mentality among voters.
The rise of populism had the potential to undermine trust in Romania’s democratic institutions. Simion questioned the legitimacy of the election results in advance and was reluctant to concede defeat. Such behavior constitutes a direct challenge to the legal and electoral systems. If the legitimacy of elections is called into question, it may severely damage public trust in democratic processes (The Guardian 2025).
Polarization Within Society
The rhetoric of Simion and the AUR sharply divided Romanian society into two camps: on one side, those loyal to liberal-democratic values and supportive of close relations with the European Union; on the other, those prioritizing national sovereignty, conservative values, and a policy of "protection against foreigners." This social polarization was felt even within families, circles of friends, and workplaces. The increasing aggression on social media and at street rallies during and after the elections demonstrated the depth of this divide.
In summary, the rise of populism in Romania is not a sudden development but rather the result of long-accumulated social, economic, and institutional problems. George Simion’s strong performance in the elections reveals that a significant portion of the population harbors deep dissatisfaction with the system. However, the channeling of this dissatisfaction into populism poses potential risks for the country’s democratic future. While populism has been defeated for now, its roots remain deep. If the new president and government fail to effectively address these grievances, this ideology may grow even stronger in the future (Politico Europe 2025).
The Global Implications of the Election
The results of the May 18 presidential elections carry significance not only for reshaping Romania’s domestic political landscape but also for maintaining a positive balance within Europe and on the international stage (European Council on Foreign Relations 2025). With Nicușor Dan’s victory, the European Union and Western partners breathed a “sigh of political relief.” Had George Simion won, there were widespread concerns that Romania’s relationship with Europe would significantly deteriorate, Russia’s influence would expand, and Romania’s credibility within NATO would be called into question (European Council on Foreign Relations 2025).
Romania has been a member of the EU since 2007 and, although not yet part of the Schengen Area, it plays a strategic role in upholding European values in Eastern Europe. Dan’s victory was not just a political success for the EU but also carried deeper symbolic meaning: by moving in the opposite direction from increasingly authoritarian-leaning countries like Hungary and Poland, Romania demonstrated its commitment to preserving EU democratic norms. The result was welcomed in major European capitals—Brussels, Berlin, and Paris—as a “victory for democracy.”
The EU now aims to deepen cooperation with Romania’s new leadership, particularly within the framework of combating foreign interference and strengthening the rule of law. This is also being interpreted as a symbolic act of resistance against the wave of populism across Europe.
As a country located on NATO’s eastern flank and sharing a border with Ukraine, Romania holds a significant strategic position in the Western security architecture. Simion’s soft rhetoric towards Russia and his skepticism towards European institutions had raised questions about Romania’s reliability within the alliance. Had he been elected, resistance to Western security policy could have grown within Romania.
Nicușor Dan, in contrast, reaffirmed his commitment to cooperation with NATO and continued support for Ukraine. This stance is of vital importance for the West, which seeks to prevent further Russian expansion in Eastern Europe. Romania’s position on the Black Sea and its role in regional energy infrastructure make it not only a political ally but also a strategic pillar for both NATO and the EU.
Energy Security and Geo-Economic Dimensions
Romania also plays a key role in energy security for Central and Eastern Europe. Its natural gas reserves in the Black Sea and its involvement in alternative energy projects position the country as a potential energy hub for European nations seeking to reduce dependence on Russian gas. Concerns had been raised that if Simion were to win, Romanian-Russian energy relations might warm. However, Dan’s support for integration with Western energy markets and development of alternative sources aligns well with the EU’s energy policy (Transatlantic Policy Center 2024).
A Global Diplomatic Signal
The outcome of Romania’s elections sent an important international signal against populism. In recent years, the rise of populist leaders such as Donald Trump, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Viktor Orbán—who pose significant threats to democratic systems—had suggested a weakening of liberal values in global politics. However, the defeat of a right-wing populist candidate in Romania demonstrated that citizens in other democratic countries still seek change within the system, not outside of it.
The results were closely monitored by international media and political circles. Outlets such as The Guardian, Le Monde, and The New York Times interpreted Dan’s victory as a “strategic turning point for Western democracies” (Le Monde 2025).
Upcoming Challenges
Despite his victory in the election, Dan will face serious governance challenges. In the parliamentary elections held in December 2024, no party achieved a majority. The Social Democratic Party (PSD) came in first with the highest vote share (21.96%), while AUR came second with 18.01% (Robert Schuman Foundation 2024). This fragmented political landscape makes it difficult for Dan to form a coalition government and could hinder the implementation of reforms. If failures occur in economic and social policies, there remains a strong possibility of populism resurging.
Although Nicușor Dan’s victory in the 2025 presidential election marks a significant turning point for democracy in Romania, this success does not resolve all of the country’s issues. On the contrary, Romania will face a range of complex challenges in the period ahead. Both in domestic governance and foreign affairs, the new leadership will need to adopt serious and flexible approaches.
1. Enduring Impact of Populism and Political Polarization
The strong showing of George Simion and the AUR party in the elections demonstrated that a significant portion of the Romanian population is dissatisfied with the existing system. Losing the election does not eliminate this discontent. Populist rhetoric—framing a false dichotomy between “the people” and “the elite”—has deepened societal polarization, which remains even after the vote. The new president is compelled to reduce this political and social tension and to establish a new platform for unity based on dialogue.
This also requires restoring trust in institutions. Strengthening confidence in the electoral process, developing effective strategies to combat disinformation, and reinforcing civil society must be top priorities.
2. Economic and Social Inequality
Although Romania’s economic indicators show growth, this development has not been evenly distributed across regions. Rural areas, the Moldavia region, and underdeveloped towns remain socioeconomically behind. These areas are also where populist politics enjoy the most support. The new administration must ensure a fair distribution of regional development funds and prioritize reforms in agriculture, healthcare, and education.
Labor migration also poses a threat to social stability. The emigration of young and skilled workers to Western Europe is reducing the country's workforce and innovation potential (World Bank 2025). The Dan administration must take concrete steps to promote return migration, strengthen the domestic labor market, and support the development of a startup culture.
Among youth, there is also a growing tendency toward political apathy or radical choices. This is linked to disparities in education quality and weak resilience against disinformation on social media. In the new era, increasing media literacy, encouraging youth engagement in political processes, and developing digital security strategies must become key priorities for the state.
3. Institutional Reforms and the Fight Against Corruption
Romania has long faced criticism from the European Union for corruption. Despite some steps taken by previous governments toward transparency, serious gaps remain in the judiciary and administrative governance. These problems not only undermine public trust in the legal system but also reduce foreign investor interest in the country.
The new president must aim to strengthen an independent judiciary, free anti-corruption institutions from political influence, and raise the level of professionalism in public administration. Otherwise, the consolidation of democracy will remain only symbolic.
4. International Relations and Geopolitical Balance
The war in Ukraine, tensions between Russia and the West, and energy security are creating serious regional pressures for Romania. In this complex geopolitical environment, Romania must further strengthen its position both within NATO and the European Union.
At the same time, if Romania aspires to regional leadership, it must take a more active role in ensuring Black Sea security, strengthening relations with Moldova, and contributing to stability in the Balkans (Balkan Insight 2024). The new president’s foreign policy must not only ensure national security but also affirm the country's key transit role in energy and transportation projects.
Conclusion
The 2025 Romanian presidential election was not merely a political contest—it was a defining moment to affirm the country’s democratic identity and its place in Europe. Nicușor Dan’s victory brought renewed hope for the viability of liberal democracy in Eastern Europe. However, the significant support for George Simion and the wide resonance of populist rhetoric revealed the fragility of democratic institutions. Today, Romania stands at a historic crossroads, and its next steps may shape not only its own future but also the trajectory of democracy across Europe.
This election is not just a domestic matter for one country—it is part of a broader ideological and geopolitical struggle impacting both Europe and the world. With Nicușor Dan’s win, the European Union and NATO secured an important assurance that a democratic and pro-Western course would continue in Eastern Europe. This election may well go down in history as an international response to populism and authoritarianism. However, to make this victory lasting, the new government must act decisively and consistently in both domestic reforms and foreign policy.
Though an important victory for democracy has been achieved, ensuring its sustainability will require a serious and committed approach to the challenges ahead. Soften political polarization, prioritize fundamental human rights, promote social and economic equity, accelerate judicial reforms, and strengthen ties with international allies—these will be the true tests for the new president.
References
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